Indian retail market to grow at 6% CAGR to USD 865 bn by 2023

CORPORATE

Indian retail market to grow at 6%

 CAGR to USD 865 bn by 2023, says

 Technopak at ET Edge International

 Retail Leaders Summit

      “Retail in Momentum, Being Change Ready” is the new mantra

      FDI makes no difference, verdict of ET Edge Retail Leaders

    E-tailing will grow to USD 56 bn at 6.5% of total market by 2023

The Indian retail market, currently estimated at USD 490 billion, is project to grow at a CAGR of 6% to reach USD 865 billion by 2023. E-tailing will emerge as a key retail channel, which will drive the growth of corporatized retail. The size of e-tailing is estimated to grow from the current USD 1 billion at 0.2% of the retail market to USD 56 billion (in real terms) at 6.5% of the total market by 2023, driven by an ecosystem favouring the e-tailing market. The share of corporatized brick & mortar retail in total merchandise retail will at best grow from the current 7% to 17% by 2023. These were the key takeaways from Technopak’s “Vision 2020 Emerging Consumer Trends & Retailer Responses” presented at ET Edge International Retail Leaders Summit on “Retail in Momentum, Being Change Ready” held in Mumbai.  

While making his presentation, Ankur Bisen, Vice President, Technopak, said, “Despite the persistent economic pressures and slowdown in India’s economy, merchandise retail will continue to witness sustained growth. An increasing share of incremental merchandise retail will come from urban and semi-urban centers, which in turn, is an outcome of rapid urbanization experienced in India. Apart from these urban centers, demand will also come from the emerging towns and clusters where primary source of livelihood has moves from agriculture to other professions. The retail chain will continue to face structural issues encompassing real estate, labour, sourcing and supply chain that will not allow corporatized brick & mortar retail to grow beyond the stated estimate.” 

In his opening remarks, Deepak Lamba, President, TCL-BCCL, said, “The Indian retail business is a unique industry with multiple challenges as the retail industry is undergoing a major transformation with many opportunities accompanied by complexity. The Government has initiated a series of fiscal and economic reforms bringing back a sense of optimism within the retail business fraternity and this needs to be capitalized by the industry leaders through deliberation and discussion at such platform.”

The panelists at ET Edge International Retail Leaders Summit on “Retail in Momentum, Being Change Ready” included: Manish Tiwari, ED, Hindustan Unilever Ltd.; Avani Davda, CEO, Starbucks India; Tim Eynon, Business Head, Provogue; Govind Srikhande, Customer Care Associate & MD, Shoppers Stop; Sandeep Dhar, CEO, Tesco HSC; Romie Dutt, Executive Director & CE, Sahara Q Shop; Himanshu Chakrawarti, CEO, The MobileStore; Devendra Chawla, President – Food Bazaar, Future Group; Rahul Mehta, President, CMAI; Prof. P K Sinha, Prof. of Retailing, IIM A; Dinanath Dubhashi, MD & CEO, L&T Finance; Mahesh Murty, Founder, Seedfund; Harish Bijoor, Brand-expert & CEO, Harish Bijoor Consults Inc.; Deepa Thomas, eCommerce Evangelist, eBay – India; Laurent Dhaeyer, President, EBS; and John Goldrick, Global Sales Director, SAP amongst others.

The strategic discussions amongst leaders and visionaries presented India and global industry barons & visionaries on a single platform to put across their concerns to the policy makers, discover new opportunities, create and expand into untapped markets and understand the existing lacunae and loop-holes that impact profits and market share, thus enriching the industry at large. This conference will see participation from c+ level executives, business & functional heads from established as well as upcoming retail chains, and will focus on bringing the greatest international minds and the industry on the same platform to discuss challenges, exchange ideas and network. 

 “A visible conversion from saving to spending economy is taking place in India in recent times following emergence of a sizeable young generation in the society, said Prof. P K Sinha from IIM, Ahmedabad. “Even in low income category, people are going for buying in format of retail outlets though majority of such format is dominated by Food and Grocery category. The demography in the retail consumer space is changing fast in India due to induction of technology mainly to online sales and mobile based transaction. The growing competition and expansion of retail network, there would soon be tapering on profitability among the large players.” In this context, Prof Sinha suggested four ‘A’ ---Ambience, Accessibility, Availability, Affordability---for managing the customer expectation.

Govind Shrikhande, MD, Shoppers Stop, said, “In light of the challenging economic scenario, most retailers need to change their business practices for survival. What can international retailers contribute to Indian entrepreneurs? We need an Anand-type cooperative structure for retail sector in India to sustain growth.”

CP Toshniwal, Group CFO, Future Group, said,” The real challenge on retail industry is largely dependent on the categories of retail such as grocery. Retail business has low margin and high volume whereas lifestyle retail has high margin and low volume business. FDI will not help the fortune of Indian retail business.”

Rahul Mehta, President of CMAI, said, “Indian retailers would evolve their own strategy and any amount of FDI will not have any impact on the domestic industry. In fact, Rahul Vira, Business Head, Gitanjali Group, said, foreign jewellery design and brand are not viable in India since Indians prefer to have their own products mainly during marriages and any festivals. “Foreign products cannot meet the aspiration of Indian customers,” Vira added.

“In slowdown, do what is right for the consumers. When the cycle turns, we shall be a far more consumer-centric company than what we are today," Manish Tiwari, ED - Sales & Customer Development at Hindustan Unilever Ltd. All ET Edge Summit Leaders said continuing with planned investments is important for a long-term growth.

Devendra Chawla, President - Food Bazaar - Future Group said when it clubbed several products of cleaners from toilets to floor and glass into a single pack, it was an instant hit during the recent Independence Day week sales. "It's akin to the Indian thali versus a la carte menu in a restaurant - Sometimes you want to order all dishes separately or you want it like a thali with some dishes together. This saves consumer time and due to great value, any one of the cleaner which otherwise would not have been picked gets into the home helping, increase penetration and consumption.”

Marketing consultant Harish Bijoor said that when he recently conducted a survey covering over 18,000 kirana stores that don't offer discounts and over 220 modern trade outlets that thrived on price-offs, he found out that 90% of the customers were loyal to smaller shops compared to around 40% for modern stores. Yet, discounting merchandise contributed over 35% of leading food and grocery retailers' sales during the year ended March. For global players such as Starbucks, its value for money is what consumers are really seeking out. "We don't see any pessimism and Indian consumers spend when they see value in the brand," said Avani Davda, CEO, Starbucks India, the 50:50 joint venture between Starbucks Corporation and Tata Global Beverages that operates Starbucks cafes in the country.

ET Edge has been founded to empower multiple sector, industries and segments through the dispersion of critical business knowledge through strategically developed conference and summits. Foreseeing the tremendous potential, which India has in store, especially in sectors such as Retail, Infrastructure, Healthcare, education, Technology and BFSI, ET Edge strives to bring together visionaries and key global leaders through its enriched knowledge through strategically developed conferences and summits. Foreseeing the tremendous potential, which India has in store, ET Edge strives to bring together visionaries and key global leaders through it enriched knowledge platforms to aid the symbiotic relationship societies and businesses share. Extensive market research with core practitioners, experts, leading trend setters and policy makers is conducted to ensure that these platforms are unparalleled in the vertical they cater to. Visionaries and industry leaders contributing as speakers will only ensure that these platforms set themselves apart. 

Deepak Lamba, President, TCL-BCCL, said, “We aim to develop knowledge destinations by channelizing global intelligence vide summits and conferences through fortifying lectures, workshops, panel discussions, roundtables and case studies. The forums would ensure that the senior decision makers are equipped with information to respond to challenges being faced from a global perspective. We have substantial expedients for the business and visualize it taking mammoth proportions while developing into a one-stop destination for the stalwarts of the industry. The plan is to formulate a focused holistic solution for key sectors, which contributes largely towards the GDP of the nation.”

Times Conferences Ltd. (TCL) specializes in building B2B communities through the creation of high octane content with a long term objective of becoming a holistic destination for industry segments. TCL will deploy unique B2B initiatives to attain high levels of saliency and attract the brightest minds across industry sectors. These initiatives leave back a footprint on the industry and over the years become a focal point of deliberation on key industry issues, and disseminating critical industry information.